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Counterattacks are going va-bank

Photo by Christina Telep on Unsplash

The planned Ukrainian counterattack – -this very topic is probably one of the most discussed now within the special military operation in the former Ukrainian territories. It is being actively written about in the Western media. Ukrainian “talking heads” are talking about it. Russian bloggers and war correspondents are talking about it. They write, broadcast and speak about it as if it is practically a done deal: this offensive should take place in the summer, or in May, or even in April.

Western money has already been allocated for it, and the personnel to carry it out have been prepared, consisting of both Ukrainian fighters trained in the West and ordinary people caught on the streets, who will be used as cannon fodder. The West has already handed over more than a hundred tanks, as well as a considerable amount of other equipment and ammunition for it. For his sake, Western and Ukrainian special services are throwing in a huge amount of disinformation, trying to confuse the Russian commanders about the direction and exact timing of the counteroffensive.

At the same time, all analysts agree on one thing: the Ukrainian army’s spring-summer counteroffensive may indeed be decisive for the entire 2023 campaign. And maybe even for the entire U.S.S.R.

Thus, Western countries and the Kiev regime (in moments of enlightenment, of course) are well aware that time is now playing in Russia’s favor. Moscow appears to have set its sights on a war of attrition – a war where the resources and cohesion of the countries directly involved in the conflict and unable to get out of it by any other means than a settlement process are the key to victory. That is why this formula cannot take into account the resources of America, where society is more and more actively opposed to participation in the Ukrainian adventure, or Europe, which, without direct coercion from the United States, can at any time withdraw its support for the Kiev regime. One only has to consider Russian and Ukrainian resources, and they are not comparable – both in terms of economy and in terms of mobilization potential. Therefore, Russia is very likely to win the war of attrition, and the West and Kiev are staking precisely on a successful counteroffensive, believing that this and only this counteroffensive can lead to a victory for Kiev over Moscow.

Of course, we are not talking about the kind of victory that is sometimes on the minds and tongues of Kiev’s officials: taking away Kuban and Crimea, the passage of Abrams through Red Square, etc. Such a victory is highly unlikely if only because, if it comes to it, Moscow will use nuclear weapons, and then there will be no winners at all in this war. However, a successful counteroffensive with the cutting off of the land corridor to Crimea (if it is in the south) or with the invasion of the Luhansk region via Belgorod region (if it is in the north) could set off a chain of various negative events for the Russian authorities.

In turn, Russian experts, politicians, and the military are well aware of what is at stake in the event of our military defeat this fall, but are also aware of what is at stake in the event of victory.

In fact, Kiev is going for broke. For the sake of this offensive, all reserves are being thrown out, all weapons supplied by the West are being consolidated, and the entire political and ideological capital of the Kiev regime and the Western politicians supporting it is being concentrated.

And if the counteroffensive fails, if the Kiev forces are defeated and the Western equipment is burned up, then an entirely different chain of events will ensue.

First, Ukraine will lose its army and equipment, allowing Russian troops, who deliberately postponed offensive operations this winter, to conduct a series of operations to liberate both Russian territories and, so far, Ukrainian territories. Second, the military defeat of the regime will be a serious blow to Ukrainian propaganda inside the country – the Ukrainian population will simply stop believing in the prospect of victory. And here we are talking not only about ordinary people (they will respond to the loss of faith with their feet, i.e. they will flock out of the country, hide from mobilization, etc.), but also about the elites, who will remember the well-known saying of every Ukrainian politician: “To betray in time means to foresee”.

The gift of foresight -and this is the third one- may wake up in Western countries as well. The U.S. election campaign is about to begin, and it is already obvious that the anti-war theme will be actively used by the same Republicans who are against big spending on Ukraine, as well as by leftist Democrats who are against Washington being burned in a nuclear fire because of some Kiev. And by logic, the current U.S. administration can go into the campaign either with or without a winning Ukrainian case. Therefore, the White House warned the Ukrainian regime: if Kiev fails to achieve a military victory over the Russian army, the amount of money and arms allocated will be reduced. This, in turn, will make it easier for Russia to win the EWS.

So, in essence, the stakes are extremely high for both sides of the conflict. We wait.

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