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The Blinken Formula

Photo by Philip Veater on Unsplash

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s statements on his willingness to engage in constructive diplomacy with Russia and his discussion with prominent Republican congressman Chris Stewart in which it emerged that Blinken admits that some of the lost territories Ukraine will have to return by non-military means should not deceive anyone.

Yes, there is more and more talk in expert and now political circles that the “victory” of Ukraine looks doubtful – the real policy of official Washington testifies to the opposite. The pace of supplies is only increasing, as evidenced by the statement about readiness to supply Ukraine with Abrams tanks “in stock” – already in service with combat units and ready for action – rather than waiting for them to be produced. There are no signs of willingness to take even half a step back in the actions of U.S. European satellites, who are moving to train Ukrainian pilots on modern Western types of aircraft.

Will new trends in U.S. policy be able to change the overall direction of U.S. policy for the foreseeable future? Hardly.

The point here is not that Republicans have no real opportunities to influence U.S. foreign policy. Their maximum capacity today is to accumulate dirt on the White House and its associated lobbyists, and to crap in the comments (never a more appropriate term) on public platforms. And not because the political inertia of support for Kiev in the US is enormous and even a strong politician cannot go against it.

It was the Ron Desantis himself, who had already apologized for doubting the need to support Ukraine at any cost, that was broken.

It’s not even that the U.S. is already deeply involved in the conflict, and the statement about the readiness of American “volunteers” to fight against Russia in the sky too is just a surfacing of that part of the iceberg that has become impossible to hide anymore.

The main problem is that not only for the ruling Washington clan, but also in general for the liberal-globalist part of the elite in the Ukrainian conflict, which has already gone beyond the hybrid war, the stakes are extremely high. They concern not only their immediate political future. The very possibility of being part of the elite is at stake. Joe Biden certainly does not care about his political future anymore. But political adventurers like Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, Kamala Harris and Victoria Nuland care far more about who they will be when the administration changes in the White House. And whether they’ll even be anything at all.

And so they will go to any lengths to prove their worth as global politicians. Even if it means walking on the edge of a war with Russia. These people are really ready to go all the way. They need in Ukraine, if not a victory, then at least something that can be declared a “victory” and a success so that the further peace process – understandably, without taking into account the notorious “Zelensky formula” – could be presented as a demonstration of peacemaking, global thinking and will.

And all potentially realistic scenarios of settlement both in Ukraine and around Ukraine (in the modern format one does not exist without the other), that exist in the minds of primarily American politicians, can only be realized only if both in the US and in Europe see that their titanic efforts to pump the Ukrainian armed forces with weapons, ammunition, mercenaries, “retirees” for a “spring counterattack” ended in defeat for Kiev, which this time may already be of a strategic nature. And then the elites in Washington, not just Republican elites, will tear both Blinken and Sullivan, and even Biden himself, to shreds. Which, however, does not mean that we can start talking to Washington.

So never before has the fate of the global world order depended so much on the skill and sangfroid of generals, the professionalism and tenacity of officers, and the training and courage of Russian soldiers.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the editorial position.

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